July 13, 2008 - Week 5 |
|
| |
|
![]() |
|
| Fifth week and fourth meeting for Group 3. Agenda included brainstorming on data related to global warming to assess the validity of various hypotheses. | |
Meredith: Hi Tris Meredith: How are you? Trisalynn: I’m doing alright and yourself? Meredith: pretty good, thanks! Meredith: you now have just a little over 2 weeks left in the class Trisalynn: yep Meredith: where are you transferring the credit to? Meredith: just curious Trisalynn: Salisbury University Meredith: ok - neat - for grad school you said? Trisalynn: yea. Social work Meredith: that's right . . .you know, out of the 9 students this summer, 3 are social workers lol Meredith: a good friend of mine was a social worker back in south east Arizona Meredith: you all do some tough work! Trisalynn: yea so I have found :-) Meredith: well, she still enjoyed it . . . just retired and still does it part time Meredith: as long as you feel like you are doing something important . . . which you absolutely will be (or are) Trisalynn: oh I do. I like the counseling bits Meredith: Hi Kieran Meredith: have a seat Meredith: and hopefully Kylee will be here soon Meredith: I'll give her another minute or two Meredith: How are you Kieran? Meredith: Are either of you going anywhere after class is done in terms of nice vacations? Meredith: after summer school? Trisalynn: nope just working. Kieran: I may go to Puerto Rico. Trisalynn: cool! Kieran: How about you? Meredith: I'm working too . . . PR sounds nice! Meredith: I went on vacation right before class started, so I have to wait a few more months to go again :) Meredith: have you been to PR before Kieran? Kieran: 6 times Meredith: wow! Meredith: cool! Meredith: I guess you would recommend it then?! Kieran: Yes. I recommend Vieques and their rainforest. Kieran: Vieques has a bioluminescent bay. Kieran: Have you seen one? Meredith: Will keep that in mind . . . that's somewhere my husband and I would like to go Meredith: no - never seen one live Kieran: Awesome. Meredith: must be spectacular Kieran: White light when you thrash in the water. Meredith: very neat Kieran: Went to Galapagos also Meredith: oh wow! Meredith: super cool! Meredith: you are a traveler! Kieran: You must go, Meredith. Meredith: I plan to some day Meredith: the queue for places is 1. Chile, 2. Alaska, 3. S Korea and after that we haven't decided :) Meredith: Chile in October Kieran: Chile was cool also. Meredith: wow - I need to email where you went there Kieran: I was in Santiago and some small towns, but feel free to e-mail before you and your husband go. Meredith: will do :) Meredith: let's get going Meredith: so new lab. . . and just some qualifiers Meredith: I really have no agenda . . .won't ask you to buy or sell any SUVs Kieran: lol Trisalynn: lol
Meredith: but I get a little irritated listening to popular media cover climate change issues Meredith: most journalists are not scientists Meredith: and often don't depict things quite accurately Meredith: even if with good intentions Meredith: so, the goal is just to look at data available to be able to have firm foundations Meredith: for any opinions you might hold Meredith: and it seems like people tend to converge when they look closely at data on this topic. . . Meredith: which seems like a good thing Meredith: so, that's my qualifier . . . not out to do anything but make folks look at the topic from the perspective of a science-minded person Meredith: so there were some links to look over Meredith: and undoubtedly you all have some background knowledge on the topic Meredith: so let's just go through the guiding questions from the handout one at a time Meredith: first one is really basic . . . what data do you think you'd need in hand to determine if GW is indeed occurring? Trisalynn: rate of temp change as far back as reliable data goes Kieran: temperatures at least to the tenth or hundredth decimal place Meredith: and why that level of accuracy Kieran? Kieran: Because it supposedly has changed by less than one degree over the last century, for example Meredith: ok Meredith: so looking at a graph plotted with 10-degree intervals wouldn't work so well . . . lol Meredith: good point Kieran: lol Meredith: so both of you agree on temp data over a long period and as accurate as possible Kieran: Yes. Meredith: anything else you'd want to determine if GW is occurring? Kieran: levels of CO2 Trisalynn: that too Meredith: ok Meredith: and CO2 would be to see if the GW is related to human activity? Kieran: Yes. Meredith: great - so that starts us for question 2 then Meredith: what else might we need in hand to tell if GW is due to human activity? Kieran: ozone layer depletion rate Meredith: explain you thinking K Kieran: The ozone layer is a protective layer above the stratosphere, correct? Meredith: that is one place it can be found. . . I think that's right Kieran: So, a hole would allow damaging rays from the sun to enter less hindered. Meredith: ok - possibly causing a warming trend? Kieran: Yes.
Meredith: any other info you might want to tell if humans are the cause of GW? Kieran: I have a common sense theory. Meredith: what is that? Kieran: If 10 people are in a room, the temperature rises, right? Meredith: agreed Trisalynn: I see where you are going with that ... amusing and succinct Kieran: Regardless of their activity. It is not at all scientific. Perhaps just amusing and succinct. Meredith: lol - well I'm not sure we could find data on total heat emitted by people Meredith: but you could get world population data Kieran: Nor cow flatulence? Meredith: lol Meredith: one thing we'd have to worry about with world population data vs. temp is correlation not necessarily meaning causation Meredith: as an aside Kieran: O.K Meredith: murder rates and ice cream consumption rise and fall together Kieran: :-) Meredith: the reason being that both increase in summer months Meredith: but I'll get some population data . . . could be interesting Meredith: ok - any other info we'd need to tell if humans are the cause of GW? Meredith: we have CO2, ozone and population so far Meredith: vs. temp Meredith: or time Trisalynn: pollution rates ... like the smog density around LA... Meredith: ok - how might that impact GW? Meredith: it is smoggy there, although better than it once was Trisalynn: the smog itself in most cities is a manifestation of all the stuff that gets put into the air... I don't know if there would be a way to measure it though <shrugs> Meredith: lol - I can tell you there is a way to measure it, since that's what my dad does for a living :) Trisalynn: cool :-) Meredith: would you want some kind of break-down of the pollutants that exist? Trisalynn: yes Meredith: in city environments Meredith: ok Trisalynn: please Meredith: and maybe something about if they impact things world-wide? Trisalynn: yes please Meredith: ok Meredith: just trying to pin down the rationale . . . things can travel for sure Meredith: sometimes on the west coast of the US, dust from the Gobi desert in China gets deposited after mega-storms over there Trisalynn: that is kinda awesome Meredith: ok. . . let's move on to the other hypotheses you read about Meredith: what were some of them? Kieran: irradiation from the sun Meredith: what was the idea behind that one? Kieran: The premise is that it is cyclical and affects other planets like Mars also. Meredith: ok - what kind of data would you want in hand to tell if that one is viable or not? Kieran: It is beyond my expertise, but something related to orbits, radii, and correlations with temperatures. Meredith: ok Meredith: what other hypotheses were out there? Kieran: Another thing suggested is ocean currents. Meredith: what was that one about? Kieran: William Gray suggested that they also are cyclical. He expects a cooling trend soon. Trisalynn: 2009 -2010 Meredith: there was a prediction of cooling in about a year? Trisalynn: yea Kieran: I think that he said something about 4 years, but not sure when he said it. Meredith: ok Meredith: any idea of how ocean currents are thought to impact climate? Meredith: if not np. . . that's for next week anyway Trisalynn: no idea Kieran: To me it sounds like more of an effect than a cause. Meredith: ok Meredith: and that may well be Meredith: what other hypotheses were out there? Meredith: if you can remember any others Kieran: Do not recall others. Meredith: how about you Tris? Trisalynn: not really Meredith: ok
Meredith: there was one more I can remember that is easy to look into Meredith: so I'll suggest it Meredith: that was the urban island effect Meredith: either of you remember anything about that one? Kieran: No. Meredith: do you recall anything on that one Tris? Meredith: the idea relates to the trend we can see watching the weather channel . . . if you look at the temps in Philly or DC and compare to the surrounding suburbs Meredith: the suburbs are always a little cooler Trisalynn: yes Meredith: so some people suggest that when people record increased temps on average, well that most of the time we are measuring from cities Meredith: so the observed increase may be a by-product of city growth Meredith: if that makes sense Kieran: O.K. But wouldn't that be relative? Meredith: how do you mean Kieran? Kieran: If you measure temps in 1990 and 2000 in Philadelphia, then a change would be a real change unless other factors are implicated. Meredith: well, I think some would say the temp increase would be due to more city activity over that period, if that makes sense Kieran: So what is the city activity doing and how? Meredith: right Meredith: what data might we need to tell if this is a reasonable idea? Kieran: It seems like a wash to me. It does not seem to explain anything in and of itself. Maybe I am missing something. Meredith: what do you think Tris? Trisalynn: I’m really not sure... with cities you have a higher concentration of people lumped into a smaller space... add in cars, buses, trucks etc... the heat would make sense... Meredith: ok Meredith: if the idea is that just cities are really warming, what data might you want to see? Trisalynn: plus all that pavement... and limited trees and water Trisalynn: temps of cities versus suburbs? Meredith: makes sense Meredith: well, I think you all exhausted what people normally talk about in this session Meredith: and you added a couple new things Meredith: I'll do some data collecting and post the data to your discussion board tonight Trisalynn: cool so we just pick and research? Meredith: and like last lab, you should each pick 1/3 of the info to go over Meredith: right
Meredith: and next time report on which things you looked into and whether or not you think it is a potential cause of climate change Kieran: O.K. Meredith: ok - then have a good evening Trisalynn: you too. Kieran: You also. Meredith: and you are very close to done . . . just keep plugging a little more :) Trisalynn: :-) Meredith: have a good one! |
|