July 13, 2008 - Week 5

 

Fifth week and fourth meeting for Group 3. Agenda included brainstorming on data related to global warming to assess the validity of various hypotheses.

Meredith: Hi Tris

Meredith: How are you?

Trisalynn: I’m doing alright and yourself?

Meredith: pretty good, thanks!

Meredith: you now have just a little over 2 weeks left in the class

Trisalynn: yep

Meredith: where are you transferring the credit to?

Meredith: just curious

Trisalynn: Salisbury University

Meredith: ok - neat - for grad school you said?

Trisalynn: yea. Social work

Meredith: that's right . . .you know, out of the 9 students this summer, 3 are social workers lol

Meredith: a good friend of mine was a social worker back in south east Arizona

Meredith: you all do some tough work!

Trisalynn: yea so I have found :-)

Meredith: well, she still enjoyed it . . . just retired and still does it part time

Meredith: as long as you feel like you are doing something important . . . which you absolutely will be (or are)

Trisalynn: oh I do. I like the counseling bits

Meredith: Hi Kieran

Meredith: have a seat

Meredith: and hopefully Kylee will be here soon

Meredith: I'll give her another minute or two

Meredith: How are you Kieran?

Meredith: Are either of you going anywhere after class is done in terms of nice vacations?

Meredith: after summer school?

Trisalynn: nope just working.

Kieran: I may go to Puerto Rico.

Trisalynn: cool!

Kieran: How about you?

Meredith: I'm working too . . . PR sounds nice!

Meredith: I went on vacation right before class started, so I have to wait a few more months to go again :)

Meredith: have you been to PR before Kieran?

Kieran: 6 times

Meredith: wow!

Meredith: cool!

Meredith: I guess you would recommend it then?!

Kieran: Yes. I recommend Vieques and their rainforest.

Kieran: Vieques has a bioluminescent bay.

Kieran: Have you seen one?

Meredith: Will keep that in mind . . . that's somewhere my husband and I would like to go

Meredith: no - never seen one live

Kieran: Awesome.

Meredith: must be spectacular

Kieran: White light when you thrash in the water.

Meredith: very neat

Kieran: Went to Galapagos also

Meredith: oh wow!

Meredith: super cool!

Meredith: you are a traveler!

Kieran: You must go, Meredith.

Meredith: I plan to some day

Meredith: the queue for places is 1. Chile, 2. Alaska, 3. S Korea and after that we haven't decided :)

Meredith: Chile in October

Kieran: Chile was cool also.

Meredith: wow - I need to email where you went there

Kieran: I was in Santiago and some small towns, but feel free to e-mail before you and your husband go.

Meredith: will do :)

Meredith: let's get going

Meredith: so new lab. . . and just some qualifiers

Meredith: I really have no agenda . . .won't ask you to buy or sell any SUVs

Kieran: lol

Trisalynn: lol

Meredith: but I get a little irritated listening to popular media cover climate change issues

Meredith: most journalists are not scientists

Meredith: and often don't depict things quite accurately

Meredith: even if with good intentions

Meredith: so, the goal is just to look at data available to be able to have firm foundations

Meredith: for any opinions you might hold

Meredith: and it seems like people tend to converge when they look closely at data on this topic. . .

Meredith: which seems like a good thing

Meredith: so, that's my qualifier . . . not out to do anything but make folks look at the topic from the perspective of a science-minded person

Meredith: so there were some links to look over

Meredith: and undoubtedly you all have some background knowledge on the topic

Meredith: so let's just go through the guiding questions from the handout one at a time

Meredith: first one is really basic . . . what data do you think you'd need in hand to determine if GW is indeed occurring?

Trisalynn: rate of temp change as far back as reliable data goes

Kieran: temperatures at least to the tenth or hundredth decimal place

Meredith: and why that level of accuracy Kieran?

Kieran: Because it supposedly has changed by less than one degree over the last century, for example

Meredith: ok

Meredith: so looking at a graph plotted with 10-degree intervals wouldn't work so well . . . lol

Meredith: good point

Kieran: lol

Meredith: so both of you agree on temp data over a long period and as accurate as possible

Kieran: Yes.

Meredith: anything else you'd want to determine if GW is occurring?

Kieran: levels of CO2

Trisalynn: that too

Meredith: ok

Meredith: and CO2 would be to see if the GW is related to human activity?

Kieran: Yes.

Meredith: great - so that starts us for question 2 then

Meredith: what else might we need in hand to tell if GW is due to human activity?

Kieran: ozone layer depletion rate

Meredith: explain you thinking K

Kieran: The ozone layer is a protective layer above the stratosphere, correct?

Meredith: that is one place it can be found. . . I think that's right

Kieran: So, a hole would allow damaging rays from the sun to enter less hindered.

Meredith: ok - possibly causing a warming trend?

Kieran: Yes.

Meredith: any other info you might want to tell if humans are the cause of GW?

Kieran: I have a common sense theory.

Meredith: what is that?

Kieran: If 10 people are in a room, the temperature rises, right?

Meredith: agreed

Trisalynn: I see where you are going with that ... amusing and succinct

Kieran: Regardless of their activity. It is not at all scientific. Perhaps just amusing and succinct.

Meredith: lol - well I'm not sure we could find data on total heat emitted by people

Meredith: but you could get world population data

Kieran: Nor cow flatulence?

Meredith: lol

Meredith: one thing we'd have to worry about with world population data vs. temp is correlation not necessarily meaning causation

Meredith: as an aside

Kieran: O.K

Meredith: murder rates and ice cream consumption rise and fall together

Kieran: :-)

Meredith: the reason being that both increase in summer months

Meredith: but I'll get some population data . . . could be interesting

Meredith: ok - any other info we'd need to tell if humans are the cause of GW?

Meredith: we have CO2, ozone and population so far

Meredith: vs. temp

Meredith: or time

Trisalynn: pollution rates ... like the smog density around LA...

Meredith: ok - how might that impact GW?

Meredith: it is smoggy there, although better than it once was

Trisalynn: the smog itself in most cities is a manifestation of all the stuff that gets put into the air... I don't know if there would be a way to measure it though <shrugs>

Meredith: lol - I can tell you there is a way to measure it, since that's what my dad does for a living :)

Trisalynn: cool :-)

Meredith: would you want some kind of break-down of the pollutants that exist?

Trisalynn: yes

Meredith: in city environments

Meredith: ok

Trisalynn: please

Meredith: and maybe something about if they impact things world-wide?

Trisalynn: yes please

Meredith: ok

Meredith: just trying to pin down the rationale . . . things can travel for sure

Meredith: sometimes on the west coast of the US, dust from the Gobi desert in China gets deposited after mega-storms over there

Trisalynn: that is kinda awesome

Meredith: ok. . . let's move on to the other hypotheses you read about

Meredith: what were some of them?

Kieran: irradiation from the sun

Meredith: what was the idea behind that one?

Kieran: The premise is that it is cyclical and affects other planets like Mars also.

Meredith: ok - what kind of data would you want in hand to tell if that one is viable or not?

Kieran: It is beyond my expertise, but something related to orbits, radii, and correlations with temperatures.

Meredith: ok

Meredith: what other hypotheses were out there?

Kieran: Another thing suggested is ocean currents.

Meredith: what was that one about?

Kieran: William Gray suggested that they also are cyclical. He expects a cooling trend soon.

Trisalynn: 2009 -2010

Meredith: there was a prediction of cooling in about a year?

Trisalynn: yea

Kieran: I think that he said something about 4 years, but not sure when he said it.

Meredith: ok

Meredith: any idea of how ocean currents are thought to impact climate?

Meredith: if not np. . . that's for next week anyway

Trisalynn: no idea

Kieran: To me it sounds like more of an effect than a cause.

Meredith: ok

Meredith: and that may well be

Meredith: what other hypotheses were out there?

Meredith: if you can remember any others

Kieran: Do not recall others.

Meredith: how about you Tris?

Trisalynn: not really

Meredith: ok

Meredith: there was one more I can remember that is easy to look into

Meredith: so I'll suggest it

Meredith: that was the urban island effect

Meredith: either of you remember anything about that one?

Kieran: No.

Meredith: do you recall anything on that one Tris?

Meredith: the idea relates to the trend we can see watching the weather channel . . . if you look at the temps in Philly or DC and compare to the surrounding suburbs

Meredith: the suburbs are always a little cooler

Trisalynn: yes

Meredith: so some people suggest that when people record increased temps on average, well that most of the time we are measuring from cities

Meredith: so the observed increase may be a by-product of city growth

Meredith: if that makes sense

Kieran: O.K. But wouldn't that be relative?

Meredith: how do you mean Kieran?

Kieran: If you measure temps in 1990 and 2000 in Philadelphia, then a change would be a real change unless other factors are implicated.

Meredith: well, I think some would say the temp increase would be due to more city activity over that period, if that makes sense

Kieran: So what is the city activity doing and how?

Meredith: right

Meredith: what data might we need to tell if this is a reasonable idea?

Kieran: It seems like a wash to me. It does not seem to explain anything in and of itself. Maybe I am missing something.

Meredith: what do you think Tris?

Trisalynn: I’m really not sure... with cities you have a higher concentration of people lumped into a smaller space... add in cars, buses, trucks etc... the heat would make sense...

Meredith: ok

Meredith: if the idea is that just cities are really warming, what data might you want to see?

Trisalynn: plus all that pavement... and limited trees and water

Trisalynn: temps of cities versus suburbs?

Meredith: makes sense

Meredith: well, I think you all exhausted what people normally talk about in this session

Meredith: and you added a couple new things

Meredith: I'll do some data collecting and post the data to your discussion board tonight

Trisalynn: cool so we just pick and research?

Meredith: and like last lab, you should each pick 1/3 of the info to go over

Meredith: right

Meredith: and next time report on which things you looked into and whether or not you think it is a potential cause of climate change

Kieran: O.K.

Meredith: ok - then have a good evening

Trisalynn: you too.

Kieran: You also.

Meredith: and you are very close to done . . . just keep plugging a little more :)

Trisalynn: :-)

Meredith: have a good one!