July 15, 2008 - Week 6

 

Sixth week and fifth meeting for Group 1. Agenda included discussion of data analyzed related to Global Warming hypotheses.

Meredith: Hi Madison!

MadisonMarie: hey!

MadisonMarie: u r in LV?

Meredith: Las Vegas - yup

Meredith: saw Blue Man Show last night

MadisonMarie: OOOHHH that’s fun

MadisonMarie: wow how was it?

Meredith: but really here for a conference

MadisonMarie: haha gotta have time to play too though

Meredith: it was neat - very spectacular weirdness

Meredith: good point!

MadisonMarie: my sister has seen it she likes it I think

Meredith: :)

MadisonMarie: I’ve never been to Vegas but I mean, too

MadisonMarie: haha

Meredith: I'm sure you'll make it out here

Meredith: I actually am not a gambler, drinker or show person on average . . . or a shopper for that matter . . . lol

Meredith: but it still has been pretty good so far :)

MadisonMarie: hahahha!!! well good you’ll come home with money still in your pocket then lol

Meredith: hopefully others will show up!

Meredith: Hi Libby!

MadisonMarie: brb

Meredith: Hi drenken!

Meredith: glad you all could make it

Meredith: have a seat

Meredith: I *might* get momentarily kicked out during our session

Meredith: as my 24 hours of internet connection expires soon, but I'll just have to pay for a new 24 hours which will just take a sec to do

Meredith: Libby - want to sit in a chair?

Meredith: blue chair is open

Libby: I don’t see a chair

Libby: oh haha

Meredith: it takes a sec for things to resolve on your computer

Meredith: just wander closer to us and it will appear

Meredith: you all are getting very close to done - so congrats

Meredith: just hang in a week or two more

Libby: I don't see it still

Meredith: just wait a moment Libby

MadisonMarie: you are next to it Libby lol

Libby: ok

Meredith: wander back near us until

Meredith: some things take a sec to appear

Meredith: do you see the green chair I'm in Libby?

Meredith: I can move

Meredith: great

Meredith: ok - so you all became experts in something last week

Meredith: who looked at what so I know?

Libby: I did set 1

MadisonMarie: I was set 3

drenken: ocean currents

Meredith: ok

Meredith: we can go in order then

Meredith: and it would help if we all can look at the same data

Meredith: to do that this time we'll need to have our local chat windows open. . . which you do this way. . .

Meredith: in the bottom left of your screen. . .

Meredith: there is a communicate button

MadisonMarie: ...

Meredith: click it and a chat window should appear

Meredith: do you all see it?

drenken: yeah

Meredith: make sure you are on the "local chat" tab if so

Meredith: and you can see the whole history of what we've said since you logged in

Libby: Yea that's how I do it every week

Meredith: ok - good

MadisonMarie: yeah

Meredith: let me have you test out one more thing

Meredith: if I post a URL, like this. . http:www.google.com

Meredith: oops

Meredith: http://www.google.com

Meredith: you should be able to click on the blue highlighted text

MadisonMarie: worked

Libby: mine too

Meredith: good

Meredith: so, I'll post the urls of picts from your data as you get to it

Meredith: if you want something specific, just lmk and I'll post it

Meredith: or you can copy and paste URLs too, although it takes time so feel free to have me do that

Meredith: did it work for you as well drenken?

drenken: no

Meredith: do you have the text box open?

Meredith: the grey window

drenken: Yeah

Meredith: what happens when you click on this url: http://www.google.com

drenken: I see the text, but when I click on the link nothing happens

Meredith: hmmmm

Libby: Maybe it's your browser drenken

Meredith: try this

Meredith: click on "Edit" top right of SL window

Meredith: then choose "Preferences"

Meredith: and then choose "web" tab

Meredith: lmk when you are there

drenken: got it

Meredith: And Libby - I'll have you go first in a sec here

Meredith: ok - click "use external web browser"

Meredith: and "Accept cookies" from site

Meredith: and then click ok

Meredith: were those selected before by the way?

drenken: no, they weren't

Meredith: ok

Meredith: so one last test

Meredith: click here: http://www.google.com

Meredith: any luck?

Meredith: hopefully that does it

Meredith: and I'll move on to directions until you can let us know how it went

Meredith: oops

Meredith: ok

Meredith: so Libby - the goal will be as normal

Meredith: to explain what you looked at as best you can

Meredith: teach us the importance and background on the topic

Libby: Ok are you going to ask questions or should I just go for it

Meredith: and then tell us if what you found gives any clues as to climate change

Meredith: I'll let you talk freely this time

Libby: alright

Meredith: but can ask questions if you prefer

Libby: Well I did Solar Variations...

Libby: And I highlighted some important information to help us look at how it impacts global warming... here is some of the background

Meredith: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Solar-cycle-data.png for a pict

Libby: Solar variations are the differences in the amount of radiant energy that the sun gives off. Radiant energy refers to the power of the electromagnetic waves from the sun. Sunspots are dark areas of the sun known to be magnetic storms (in the photosphere) that are characterized with having lower temperatures and highly magnetic activity. This magnetism does not allow convection to take place; meaning the Sun cannot transfer heat. [Convection refers to the movement of molecules throughout fluids]

Meredith: ok

Meredith: do you need any clarification on that Madison?

Meredith: drenken, you may have to copy and paste if it makes you log out

MadisonMarie: no

Meredith: ok

Meredith: and drenken, Libby just started with solar variation

Meredith: and she just explained that the sun emits different amounts of heat at different time

Libby: should I go on

drenken: ok

Meredith: due to increases or decreases in convection of the surface

Meredith: keep going

drenken: sorry..Second Life crashed

Meredith: np - not your fault

Libby: Every 11, 90 and 180 years the sunspot level hits its maximum this is known as the sunspot cycle. Sunspots have a relationship with magnetism, during periods of maximum sunspot activity, the sun’s magnetic field is strong. The sun’s magnetic field reverses every 22 years (during a sunspot minimum)

Meredith: ok - so that is what this image shows? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Solar-cycle-data.png

Libby: sorry I’m looking hold on

Meredith: it does - no need to wait :)

Meredith: just for reference

Libby: oh ok haha

Meredith: keep going

Libby: From 1645-1715 there was a period where there were barely any sunspots (only 50 opposed to the normal 45,000), this was known as the Maunder Minimum. This coincided with the Little Ice Age when Europe and North America endured bitterly cold winters.

Meredith: interesting

Libby: We spoke about the Little Ice Age last week, so this is one of the factors for sure

Meredith: ok

Libby: The solar variation is known as the leading external force of global warming

Meredith: ok

Meredith: did you get any range of estimates for how much it impacts climate change now (or is thought to)

Meredith: ?

Libby: well sort of, I kept getting lots of numbers.

Libby: It is said that there is usually a 0.03 degree temperature change with the sunspot cycle. http://www.ace.mmu.ac.uk/resources/gcc/2-5-3.html

Meredith: nice resource

Meredith: so how would that relate to observed changes of late?

Libby: But I didn't have a definite number - it kept giving me tons of information

Meredith: ok

Libby: how would it relate to what?

Meredith: if solar variation accounts for 0.03 degrees in a single sun cycle, what amount of the recent observed change would that be

Meredith: a lot or a little of it?

Libby: In the 1980s there was a decrease in solar energy and a period of maximum sunspot activity was observed. The sunspots were large and there were many and it was observes that the sun’s surface was cooler. It was noted that the sunspots caused the Sun to retain energy.

Libby: Not a lot

Libby: But I feel like it should be more

Meredith: what is the observed change over that last 100 years if any of you saw that?

Meredith: ok

Libby: I don’t know the number

Meredith: do any of you other ladies know that value?

Meredith: just curious

Meredith: for reference

MadisonMarie: i don’t know ...

Libby: Was it on the graph I can look it up again

Meredith: I think it is like 1 degree Celsius (so like 2 degrees F) over the past 100 years

Meredith: hopefully my not-great memory is right there

Meredith: :)

Libby: Ok well than that is close right?

Libby: My information said it's about a third less

Meredith: our SL went out

Meredith: Libby should be back soon

Meredith: were you both here the whole time?

MadisonMarie: yeah lol

Meredith: I was texting Libby

Meredith: here she is

Libby: Hi I'm back

Meredith: sorry about that, ladies

MadisonMarie: it’s fine

Meredith: you know, my notice to have to pay happened at the same time lol

Meredith: so two birds, one stone

Libby: No problem mine quit too

Meredith: :)

Meredith: so I guess for the sake of time you should give us your overall opinion of solar variation and climate change

Meredith: Libby

Libby: ok

Meredith: is it a big factor or not

Meredith: etc

Meredith: poor drenken now lol

Meredith: such is online learning

Libby: I have found that there are two major factors that coincide with global warming- not only is the Sun a major factor, but there are internal factors on the Earth that influence climate temperatures too. The Sun an external force combined with the internal factors (Land, Ocean and Atmospheric) change the climate. Gases like Carbon dioxide, water vapor and methane, all absorb long wave radiation from the Sun, this process balances the Earth’s energy. If the balance is off, then the climate temperature can rise (if there is more carbon dioxide than there is more radiation absorption causing a warming of the earth)

Meredith: ok

Libby: So I think it is a major factor but not without the internal factors

Meredith: ok - great summary

MadisonMarie: i don’t think we are gonna be able to pick ONE cause

Meredith: and the others will let us know about those internal ones

Libby: because as we've seen on its own it does not really raise the overall temp a lot

Meredith: that's a nice way to put it

MadisonMarie: but many factors

Meredith: more complicated than the news says, huh?!

Meredith: :)

Libby: I agree- it's a definite combo

Meredith: ok - so Madison, what did you look into and find out?

MadisonMarie: i was UHI and greenhouse gases

MadisonMarie: causes by people

MadisonMarie: urban island is when an area with a greater population tends to be warmer than areas less populated

MadisonMarie: this is due to many things, two that I think were the most important and interesting are:

MadisonMarie: the greatest diff. in temps between the more populated areas and the less populated areas are at night

MadisonMarie: this is said to be cause by tall buildings blocking the "cool night sky"

Meredith: interesting

Meredith: I didn't know that

MadisonMarie: and the other reason is that there is more concrete and asphault

Meredith: ok

MadisonMarie: which has diff heat storing and energy properties

MadisonMarie: and then of course ... there are more people...

Meredith: :)

MadisonMarie: the one chart showed how with the increase of population in cities there has been an increase in temp

MadisonMarie: esp. in the most populated city: Tokyo

Meredith: has that increase been just in the cities, or have non-populated areas also seen temp increases?

MadisonMarie: both

Meredith: so what might that mean for us?

MadisonMarie: that maybe cities do raise in temp but so do other places...

MadisonMarie: umm

MadisonMarie: well I look at it this way..

MadisonMarie: which might be off base

MadisonMarie: maybe the populated places would be cooler without all the population! Since we are seeing an increase in temp

MadisonMarie: never mind i don’t know where I’m going with this...

Meredith: no - you aren't wrong in my opinion

Meredith: that some temp increase is simply urbanization. . . but would urbanization explain all temp increases in your opinion and based on data?

MadisonMarie: well... urbanization takes deforestation...

MadisonMarie: not all temp increases

MadisonMarie: but it makes an impact

Meredith: ok

MadisonMarie: it’s all related...

Meredith: not off base at all

MadisonMarie: deforestation can lead to urbanization which is more people... etc

Meredith: so, another factor but not THE factor

Meredith: how about the greenhouse gas info

MadisonMarie: ok greenhouse gases are the gases that regulate earth temps

Meredith: hi drenken - we are all getting zapped today!

Meredith: Madison let us know about the urban island effect

Meredith: and now is telling us about greenhouse gases

MadisonMarie: they include water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrogen oxide (?) ozone and clorofluorocarbons

Meredith: ok

MadisonMarie: most of the C02 levels in the atmosphere are due to natural causes

Meredith: interesting

Meredith: do you know what %?

Meredith: are natural

MadisonMarie: 95%

MadisonMarie: let me check

drenken: I'm so sorry...I keep getting kicked off! It took me forever to get back that time.

Meredith: wow - did that surprise you?

Meredith: it’s OK drenken

MadisonMarie: yes

MadisonMarie: very much

Meredith: so 5% are human caused

MadisonMarie: it doesn’t seem enough to matter...

Meredith: did you read anything about carbon sources and sinks?

Meredith: just curious

MadisonMarie: until you realize how much the co2 levels have increased since the preindustrial times

Meredith: ok

Meredith: explain that then

drenken: is anybody else having trouble on here?

MadisonMarie: since the preindustrial times (this was done in 98)...

MadisonMarie: carbon levels have increased by 31%, methane by 150%!! and nitrogen oxide by 16%

Meredith: wow

Meredith: that is a lot

MadisonMarie: most of this is due to...

MadisonMarie: burning of fossil fuels (including all fuels, and cement production- thanks urbanization), and livestock enteric fermentation (cattles' gas!) and deforestation

Meredith: oops - she may have been zapped too

Meredith: there she goes

Meredith: ok

Meredith: yeah - cement is a biggie huh

MadisonMarie: basically...

MadisonMarie: temp is rising b/c there is no balance... we are taking and not giving

Meredith: ok

MadisonMarie: if we planted a tree for every building, road, and cow passing gas (?!?) it would be another story

Meredith: so 5%, when out of balance, is maybe enough?

MadisonMarie: yea!

MadisonMarie: or it at least is all adding up to be

Meredith: ok

Meredith: with the solar and the urban and all

Meredith: well thanks Libby and Madison for that so far

Meredith: and drenken has the last piece

Meredith: so what did you look into drenken and what did you conclude?

drenken: I looked into ocean currents

drenken: I would say that although ocean currents may have some effect on the climate, I don't think it's the reason for global warming

Meredith: ok

Meredith: how do the current happen?

Meredith: or what drives them?

drenken: wind causes the surface currents

drenken: salt has a big effect on deeper currents

Meredith: ok

Meredith: and how do the currents influence temperature?

drenken: salty water is denser than fresh water...cold water is denser than warm water...

Meredith: ok

Meredith: and the cycling of water moves heat around the globe?

drenken: the warm water is released into the atmosphere and the then the now cooler water sinks to the abyss

Meredith: (trying to get us to wrap up soon . . . tech issues got us behind!) :)

Meredith: not anyone’s fault

Meredith: ok

Meredith: good explanation drenken

Meredith: so that all pushes heat around the globe. . .

drenken: the plunge of the cold salty water propels the circulatory system

Meredith: what might happen with those currents do they predict?

drenken: this could reorganize the ocean's circulation patterns

drenken: which would affect the climate patterns

Meredith: ok

Meredith: so, maybe not causing overall global warming, but definitely changing climate patterns?

drenken: yeah

Meredith: ok

Meredith: so all of those are factors in one way or another

Meredith: were you all surprised to find out what you did?

drenken: yeah

MadisonMarie: yeah

Libby: Not really about the solar stuff, but I guess how its patterns relates to significant earth climate changes like the little ice age

Meredith: ok

Meredith: more complicated overall than we find out through TV though for sure

Meredith: and almost all ideas related to science and culture as similarly complicated

Meredith: as an aside

Meredith: of those factors you found out about, which can people influence, do you think?

MadisonMarie: co2 levels

MadisonMarie: deforestation

Meredith: any others?

MadisonMarie: energy use

MadisonMarie: lots

Meredith: agreed :)

Meredith: but some we can't really influence - at least not now. . not meaning we should abandon efforts, but to keep in mind

Meredith: so we can focus on those things we can influence

Meredith: so, in the interest of time I'll post up the normal things for week 3

Libby: ok sounds good

Meredith: which are things we can influence basically

MadisonMarie: ok

drenken: alright

Meredith: like energy alternatives, carbon capture, etc

Meredith: and next week is out LAST group VC

Meredith: :)

MadisonMarie: ?!

Meredith: you all are nearly done

MadisonMarie: haha

Libby: wow

Libby: went fast

Meredith: have a good week until then and too bad for the techie issues today

MadisonMarie: thanks, enjoy your time in Vegas!!

Meredith: that's good if it went fast :)

Meredith: yep - off to the conference

drenken: Thanks, cya

Meredith: my boss is texting me to go

Meredith: lol

Meredith: tty later

Meredith: bye Libby

Libby: ok bye

Libby: have fun at the conference