July 15, 2008 - Week 6 |
|
| |
|
![]() |
|
| Sixth week and fifth meeting for Group 1. Agenda included discussion of data analyzed related to Global Warming hypotheses. | |
Meredith: Hi Madison! MadisonMarie: hey! MadisonMarie: u r in LV? Meredith: Las Vegas - yup Meredith: saw Blue Man Show last night MadisonMarie: OOOHHH that’s fun MadisonMarie: wow how was it? Meredith: but really here for a conference MadisonMarie: haha gotta have time to play too though Meredith: it was neat - very spectacular weirdness Meredith: good point! MadisonMarie: my sister has seen it she likes it I think Meredith: :) MadisonMarie: I’ve never been to Vegas but I mean, too MadisonMarie: haha Meredith: I'm sure you'll make it out here Meredith: I actually am not a gambler, drinker or show person on average . . . or a shopper for that matter . . . lol Meredith: but it still has been pretty good so far :) MadisonMarie: hahahha!!! well good you’ll come home with money still in your pocket then lol Meredith: hopefully others will show up! Meredith: Hi Libby! MadisonMarie: brb Meredith: Hi drenken! Meredith: glad you all could make it Meredith: have a seat Meredith: I *might* get momentarily kicked out during our session Meredith: as my 24 hours of internet connection expires soon, but I'll just have to pay for a new 24 hours which will just take a sec to do Meredith: Libby - want to sit in a chair? Meredith: blue chair is open Libby: I don’t see a chair Libby: oh haha Meredith: it takes a sec for things to resolve on your computer Meredith: just wander closer to us and it will appear Meredith: you all are getting very close to done - so congrats Meredith: just hang in a week or two more Libby: I don't see it still Meredith: just wait a moment Libby MadisonMarie: you are next to it Libby lol Libby: ok Meredith: wander back near us until Meredith: some things take a sec to appear Meredith: do you see the green chair I'm in Libby? Meredith: I can move Meredith: great Meredith: ok - so you all became experts in something last week Meredith: who looked at what so I know? Libby: I did set 1 MadisonMarie: I was set 3 drenken: ocean currents Meredith: ok Meredith: we can go in order then Meredith: and it would help if we all can look at the same data Meredith: to do that this time we'll need to have our local chat windows open. . . which you do this way. . . Meredith: in the bottom left of your screen. . . Meredith: there is a communicate button MadisonMarie: ... Meredith: click it and a chat window should appear Meredith: do you all see it? drenken: yeah Meredith: make sure you are on the "local chat" tab if so Meredith: and you can see the whole history of what we've said since you logged in Libby: Yea that's how I do it every week Meredith: ok - good MadisonMarie: yeah Meredith: let me have you test out one more thing Meredith: if I post a URL, like this. . http:www.google.com Meredith: oops Meredith: http://www.google.com Meredith: you should be able to click on the blue highlighted text MadisonMarie: worked Libby: mine too Meredith: good Meredith: so, I'll post the urls of picts from your data as you get to it Meredith: if you want something specific, just lmk and I'll post it Meredith: or you can copy and paste URLs too, although it takes time so feel free to have me do that Meredith: did it work for you as well drenken? drenken: no Meredith: do you have the text box open? Meredith: the grey window drenken: Yeah Meredith: what happens when you click on this url: http://www.google.com drenken: I see the text, but when I click on the link nothing happens Meredith: hmmmm Libby: Maybe it's your browser drenken Meredith: try this Meredith: click on "Edit" top right of SL window Meredith: then choose "Preferences" Meredith: and then choose "web" tab Meredith: lmk when you are there drenken: got it Meredith: And Libby - I'll have you go first in a sec here Meredith: ok - click "use external web browser" Meredith: and "Accept cookies" from site Meredith: and then click ok Meredith: were those selected before by the way? drenken: no, they weren't Meredith: ok Meredith: so one last test Meredith: click here: http://www.google.com Meredith: any luck? Meredith: hopefully that does it Meredith: and I'll move on to directions until you can let us know how it went Meredith: oops Meredith: ok Meredith: so Libby - the goal will be as normal Meredith: to explain what you looked at as best you can Meredith: teach us the importance and background on the topic Libby: Ok are you going to ask questions or should I just go for it Meredith: and then tell us if what you found gives any clues as to climate change Meredith: I'll let you talk freely this time Libby: alright Meredith: but can ask questions if you prefer Libby: Well I did Solar Variations... Libby: And I highlighted some important information to help us look at how it impacts global warming... here is some of the background Meredith: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Solar-cycle-data.png for a pict
Libby: Solar variations are the differences in the amount of radiant energy that the sun gives off. Radiant energy refers to the power of the electromagnetic waves from the sun. Sunspots are dark areas of the sun known to be magnetic storms (in the photosphere) that are characterized with having lower temperatures and highly magnetic activity. This magnetism does not allow convection to take place; meaning the Sun cannot transfer heat. [Convection refers to the movement of molecules throughout fluids] Meredith: ok Meredith: do you need any clarification on that Madison? Meredith: drenken, you may have to copy and paste if it makes you log out MadisonMarie: no Meredith: ok Meredith: and drenken, Libby just started with solar variation Meredith: and she just explained that the sun emits different amounts of heat at different time Libby: should I go on drenken: ok Meredith: due to increases or decreases in convection of the surface Meredith: keep going drenken: sorry..Second Life crashed Meredith: np - not your fault Libby: Every 11, 90 and 180 years the sunspot level hits its maximum this is known as the sunspot cycle. Sunspots have a relationship with magnetism, during periods of maximum sunspot activity, the sun’s magnetic field is strong. The sun’s magnetic field reverses every 22 years (during a sunspot minimum) Meredith: ok - so that is what this image shows? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Solar-cycle-data.png Libby: sorry I’m looking hold on Meredith: it does - no need to wait :) Meredith: just for reference Libby: oh ok haha Meredith: keep going Libby: From 1645-1715 there was a period where there were barely any sunspots (only 50 opposed to the normal 45,000), this was known as the Maunder Minimum. This coincided with the Little Ice Age when Europe and North America endured bitterly cold winters. Meredith: interesting Libby: We spoke about the Little Ice Age last week, so this is one of the factors for sure Meredith: ok Libby: The solar variation is known as the leading external force of global warming Meredith: ok Meredith: did you get any range of estimates for how much it impacts climate change now (or is thought to) Meredith: ? Libby: well sort of, I kept getting lots of numbers. Libby: It is said that there is usually a 0.03 degree temperature change with the sunspot cycle. http://www.ace.mmu.ac.uk/resources/gcc/2-5-3.html Meredith: nice resource Meredith: so how would that relate to observed changes of late? Libby: But I didn't have a definite number - it kept giving me tons of information Meredith: ok Libby: how would it relate to what?
Meredith: if solar variation accounts for 0.03 degrees in a single sun cycle, what amount of the recent observed change would that be Meredith: a lot or a little of it? Libby: In the 1980s there was a decrease in solar energy and a period of maximum sunspot activity was observed. The sunspots were large and there were many and it was observes that the sun’s surface was cooler. It was noted that the sunspots caused the Sun to retain energy. Libby: Not a lot Libby: But I feel like it should be more Meredith: what is the observed change over that last 100 years if any of you saw that? Meredith: ok Libby: I don’t know the number Meredith: do any of you other ladies know that value? Meredith: just curious Meredith: for reference MadisonMarie: i don’t know ... Libby: Was it on the graph I can look it up again Meredith: I think it is like 1 degree Celsius (so like 2 degrees F) over the past 100 years Meredith: hopefully my not-great memory is right there Meredith: :) Libby: Ok well than that is close right? Libby: My information said it's about a third less Meredith: our SL went out Meredith: Libby should be back soon Meredith: were you both here the whole time? MadisonMarie: yeah lol Meredith: I was texting Libby Meredith: here she is Libby: Hi I'm back Meredith: sorry about that, ladies MadisonMarie: it’s fine Meredith: you know, my notice to have to pay happened at the same time lol Meredith: so two birds, one stone Libby: No problem mine quit too Meredith: :) Meredith: so I guess for the sake of time you should give us your overall opinion of solar variation and climate change Meredith: Libby Libby: ok Meredith: is it a big factor or not Meredith: etc Meredith: poor drenken now lol Meredith: such is online learning Libby: I have found that there are two major factors that coincide with global warming- not only is the Sun a major factor, but there are internal factors on the Earth that influence climate temperatures too. The Sun an external force combined with the internal factors (Land, Ocean and Atmospheric) change the climate. Gases like Carbon dioxide, water vapor and methane, all absorb long wave radiation from the Sun, this process balances the Earth’s energy. If the balance is off, then the climate temperature can rise (if there is more carbon dioxide than there is more radiation absorption causing a warming of the earth) Meredith: ok Libby: So I think it is a major factor but not without the internal factors Meredith: ok - great summary MadisonMarie: i don’t think we are gonna be able to pick ONE cause Meredith: and the others will let us know about those internal ones Libby: because as we've seen on its own it does not really raise the overall temp a lot Meredith: that's a nice way to put it MadisonMarie: but many factors Meredith: more complicated than the news says, huh?! Meredith: :) Libby: I agree- it's a definite combo Meredith: ok - so Madison, what did you look into and find out? MadisonMarie: i was UHI and greenhouse gases MadisonMarie: causes by people MadisonMarie: urban island is when an area with a greater population tends to be warmer than areas less populated MadisonMarie: this is due to many things, two that I think were the most important and interesting are: MadisonMarie: the greatest diff. in temps between the more populated areas and the less populated areas are at night
MadisonMarie: this is said to be cause by tall buildings blocking the "cool night sky" Meredith: interesting Meredith: I didn't know that MadisonMarie: and the other reason is that there is more concrete and asphault Meredith: ok MadisonMarie: which has diff heat storing and energy properties MadisonMarie: and then of course ... there are more people... Meredith: :) MadisonMarie: the one chart showed how with the increase of population in cities there has been an increase in temp MadisonMarie: esp. in the most populated city: Tokyo Meredith: has that increase been just in the cities, or have non-populated areas also seen temp increases? MadisonMarie: both Meredith: so what might that mean for us? MadisonMarie: that maybe cities do raise in temp but so do other places... MadisonMarie: umm MadisonMarie: well I look at it this way.. MadisonMarie: which might be off base MadisonMarie: maybe the populated places would be cooler without all the population! Since we are seeing an increase in temp MadisonMarie: never mind i don’t know where I’m going with this... Meredith: no - you aren't wrong in my opinion
Meredith: that some temp increase is simply urbanization. . . but would urbanization explain all temp increases in your opinion and based on data? MadisonMarie: well... urbanization takes deforestation... MadisonMarie: not all temp increases MadisonMarie: but it makes an impact Meredith: ok MadisonMarie: it’s all related... Meredith: not off base at all MadisonMarie: deforestation can lead to urbanization which is more people... etc Meredith: so, another factor but not THE factor Meredith: how about the greenhouse gas info MadisonMarie: ok greenhouse gases are the gases that regulate earth temps Meredith: hi drenken - we are all getting zapped today! Meredith: Madison let us know about the urban island effect Meredith: and now is telling us about greenhouse gases MadisonMarie: they include water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrogen oxide (?) ozone and clorofluorocarbons Meredith: ok MadisonMarie: most of the C02 levels in the atmosphere are due to natural causes Meredith: interesting Meredith: do you know what %? Meredith: are natural MadisonMarie: 95% MadisonMarie: let me check drenken: I'm so sorry...I keep getting kicked off! It took me forever to get back that time. Meredith: wow - did that surprise you? Meredith: it’s OK drenken MadisonMarie: yes MadisonMarie: very much Meredith: so 5% are human caused MadisonMarie: it doesn’t seem enough to matter... Meredith: did you read anything about carbon sources and sinks? Meredith: just curious MadisonMarie: until you realize how much the co2 levels have increased since the preindustrial times Meredith: ok Meredith: explain that then drenken: is anybody else having trouble on here? MadisonMarie: since the preindustrial times (this was done in 98)... MadisonMarie: carbon levels have increased by 31%, methane by 150%!! and nitrogen oxide by 16% Meredith: wow Meredith: that is a lot MadisonMarie: most of this is due to... MadisonMarie: burning of fossil fuels (including all fuels, and cement production- thanks urbanization), and livestock enteric fermentation (cattles' gas!) and deforestation Meredith: oops - she may have been zapped too Meredith: there she goes Meredith: ok Meredith: yeah - cement is a biggie huh MadisonMarie: basically... MadisonMarie: temp is rising b/c there is no balance... we are taking and not giving Meredith: ok MadisonMarie: if we planted a tree for every building, road, and cow passing gas (?!?) it would be another story Meredith: so 5%, when out of balance, is maybe enough? MadisonMarie: yea! MadisonMarie: or it at least is all adding up to be Meredith: ok Meredith: with the solar and the urban and all Meredith: well thanks Libby and Madison for that so far Meredith: and drenken has the last piece Meredith: so what did you look into drenken and what did you conclude? drenken: I looked into ocean currents
drenken: I would say that although ocean currents may have some effect on the climate, I don't think it's the reason for global warming Meredith: ok Meredith: how do the current happen? Meredith: or what drives them? drenken: wind causes the surface currents drenken: salt has a big effect on deeper currents Meredith: ok Meredith: and how do the currents influence temperature? drenken: salty water is denser than fresh water...cold water is denser than warm water... Meredith: ok Meredith: and the cycling of water moves heat around the globe? drenken: the warm water is released into the atmosphere and the then the now cooler water sinks to the abyss Meredith: (trying to get us to wrap up soon . . . tech issues got us behind!) :) Meredith: not anyone’s fault Meredith: ok Meredith: good explanation drenken Meredith: so that all pushes heat around the globe. . . drenken: the plunge of the cold salty water propels the circulatory system Meredith: what might happen with those currents do they predict? drenken: this could reorganize the ocean's circulation patterns drenken: which would affect the climate patterns Meredith: ok Meredith: so, maybe not causing overall global warming, but definitely changing climate patterns? drenken: yeah Meredith: ok Meredith: so all of those are factors in one way or another Meredith: were you all surprised to find out what you did? drenken: yeah MadisonMarie: yeah Libby: Not really about the solar stuff, but I guess how its patterns relates to significant earth climate changes like the little ice age Meredith: ok Meredith: more complicated overall than we find out through TV though for sure Meredith: and almost all ideas related to science and culture as similarly complicated Meredith: as an aside Meredith: of those factors you found out about, which can people influence, do you think? MadisonMarie: co2 levels MadisonMarie: deforestation Meredith: any others? MadisonMarie: energy use MadisonMarie: lots Meredith: agreed :) Meredith: but some we can't really influence - at least not now. . not meaning we should abandon efforts, but to keep in mind Meredith: so we can focus on those things we can influence Meredith: so, in the interest of time I'll post up the normal things for week 3 Libby: ok sounds good Meredith: which are things we can influence basically MadisonMarie: ok drenken: alright Meredith: like energy alternatives, carbon capture, etc Meredith: and next week is out LAST group VC Meredith: :) MadisonMarie: ?! Meredith: you all are nearly done MadisonMarie: haha Libby: wow Libby: went fast Meredith: have a good week until then and too bad for the techie issues today MadisonMarie: thanks, enjoy your time in Vegas!! Meredith: that's good if it went fast :) Meredith: yep - off to the conference drenken: Thanks, cya Meredith: my boss is texting me to go Meredith: lol Meredith: tty later Meredith: bye Libby Libby: ok bye Libby: have fun at the conference
|
|